National economic headwinds blow through Georgia, though job outlook steady for now

National economic headwinds driven in part by politics will continue suppressing Georgia s financial sector while raising the peril of recession says a new economic forecast from a business think tank at the University of Georgia The rd annual prediction by the Selig Center for Economic Advance rates the liability of a recession in Georgia at pretty much a coin toss In short Georgia s financial sector will struggle and it would not take much to tip into recession says the review out this week It places the odds of a recession in Georgia at The forces on the state financial system are largely the consequence of policies in Washington as President Donald Trump s tariff war blunts national economic improvement which the statement placed at rather than the anticipated Job increase will likely remain subpar its authors predicted We re expecting another year of slow economic improvement The rate of rise will be very similar in to what we experienced in but there is a higher peril of recession Jeffrey M Humphreys the main author declared in an interview Given the uncertainty in the economic and political milieu fewer projects are in the pipeline reported Humphreys the director of the Selig Center The biggest headwind is of module the business war And then the second biggest headwind is more restrictive immigration policies Georgia depends more on international exchange than the average state so the tariff troubles have been taking a greater toll here Atlanta with a highly diverse financial system depends less on global contract than other large metro areas so is less exposed But smaller communities with economies based more on production and international exchange are feeling that ill wind The economies of coastal Brunswick and Savannah for instance rely heavily on shipping through their major ports And North Georgia industrial communities Dalton with flooring and Gainesville with food and machinery production are also affected as they move product through those ports to international consumers The job field has been stable if lackluster The unemployment rate remained at in September the same as in August according to the Georgia Department of Labor That was a percentage point below the national average though it meant more than without jobs The job domain has been cooling through the year though Previously employees could hop between jobs to boost their wages Now employers have the upper hand Humphreys stated And that should last into next year The labor realm has barely been adding any jobs at all he mentioned We re only expecting about a half a percent job improvement next year so basically the labor area has stalled out Even so consumers have been propping up the business sector November tax revenues were up last month compared to November a year ago according to the Georgia Department of Revenue Income tax collections fell but were counterbalanced by rising sales tax revenue with motor fuel tax receipts up a whopping or million Despite the uncertain economic outlook people who have jobs feel secure in them the Selig Center description announced Household finances are generally in good shape with manageable debt due in part to a housing shortage that has buttressed home values Houses are pretty much worth the mortgage note so home loans are not at jeopardy of sinking underwater like in And plenty of were lucky enough to lock in historically low mortgage rates a limited years ago though rising property tax and insurance rates have been nibbling away at buying power For those with less fortunate timing who did not find an affordable home the summary did not offer good news Housing costs are expected to remain out of reach next year due to a variety of factors behind an abiding shortage The tight labor territory means fewer homeowners are moving and selling Tariffs have driven up costs for construction materials And the Trump administration s policies on immigration have pinched the construction industry s labor supply Since we do not expect these negative factors to change very much in the Selig Center commented the homebuilding and real estate industries will remain in recession The post National economic headwinds blow through Georgia though job outlook steady for now appeared first on Rough Draft Atlanta